Welcome to Bulls and Bears Network !
THE SYDNEY MEETING WILL BE HELD;
Day: Sunday, the 29th of January 2012
Time: 10.00 a.m. - 12.00 p.m.
Location: STEYNE HOTEL MANLY
Charge: Members $15.00 - Non Members $35.00
For Parking click here.
Local and Overseas Charts
Please email neil_cowin@bigpond.com if you would like to attend.
We normally do not have a meeting in January however if 15 people or more email me I will book the Steyne Hotel for 2hrs 29th January 2012. OK I have Booked!!!
There will be no formal presentation. A couple or traders Rob Kreft and Steve Grossman will go thru some current charts and or the Blue Chip Report.
So please email your interest to neil_cowin@bigpond.com
There is a cafe downstairs for that early morning coffee and a new lunch menue.
For those that have not been to the Steyne Hotel for a while you will be very pleased with the new look and management.
Feel free to bring some like minded friends along.
Please forward any enquires to Neil at neil_cowin@bigpond.com
NEW VENUE STEYNE HOTEL MANLY
Corner North Steyne and The Corso
BEACH SIDE ENTRANCE UPSTAIRS OR LIFT.
TWO HRS FREE PARKING IN CENTRAL AVE Manly
Optimize, Optimize, Optimize...
There's really only one graphic I need to include in this month's commentary, and that's the Active Investing strategy's crossover charts. These charts tell Investors and Traders when to buy and when not to buy growth stocks and right now they are both crossed upwards which means now is the time to be buying....
My Active Investing strategy has employed this approach for over 10 years and on balance, it has worked extremely well. Hence, as of the 14th of October (nearly 2 weeks ago) I recommended in my Blue Chip Report to start buying shares. Currently, there are nearly 20 shares on the Blue Chip Report's sharelist that subscribers can choose from but, sadly, here's what quite a few investors and traders have been telling me (or something similar) during the past week or so...
'Actually Alan I've got a confession to make; I've ignored my stop losses during the past few months and so I'm already sitting on a pile of shares that I'm waiting to come good. I figure I'd wait until I reverse out all my losses before I even think about doing anymore buying.'
Well here's a confession from me; I've also failed to execute my stop losses at times but if you hang on to these stocks when the market turns back up then you are more than likely, just making a bad situation even worse. This is when you should be optimizing and putting your money on the fastest rising stocks. So optimize, optimize, optimize...
And if this sounds like a sales pitch then that's because it is. Just like the sales pitch I gave over the last couple of months to buy income stocks and I was recommending the four major Banks (among others) in the Blue Chip Report. Here's an example; if you had bought ANZ a little over a month ago, you would have paid about $19.50 for it. Your dividend yield including franking credits would have been just over 10%pa and today the share price is trading at more than $21.00...to boot.
The objection I heard back in August/September was that the market could go even lower. But this isn't a problem when buying income stocks because if the market drops then yields go even higher and you simply buy more (hence dollar cost averaging). And if you have the same concern now then what difference is it going to make as to which shares you own if the market does fall. Of course, as before, you should always sell if you're stop losses are breached.
So now is the time to optimize an existing growth portfolio or start building a new one if you do have cash. And here's the real sales pitch; if you subscribe to my Blue Chip Report before Christmas then we'll waive the normal joining fee of $49.50 and put you in the running to win an Annual Blue Chip Report Subscription which is worth nearly $1,000. You'll find a BCR subscription form on my website at www.alanhull.com or you can send a request to enquiries@alanhull.com
We're also planning on holding an evening seminar in Melbourne titled 'Buying Back In' which will explain how to buy back into the market using the Blue Chip Report. It will include a tutorial, mini-Workshop, the ActVest Trade Recorder and a copy of the latest Blue Chip Report...all for $99. It will be held on an evening in late November to early December and will run from 7.30 to 10.30pm. If you are interested in attending could you please send an expression of interest to enquiries@alanhull.com
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where things are still pretty much underwater. This is a good example of what happens when you don't use trailing stop losses to manage a growth portfolio. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 21st of October 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 36th overall and is down 13.80% while the ASX200 index over the same period is down 12.72%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -15.47% with all of the portfolios still being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with it and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
THE BRISBANE MEETING WILL BE HELD;
Date: Sunday, the 6th of November 2011 PLEASE NOTE NEW VENUE FOR THIS MEETING
Time: 10.00am to 12.00pm
Location: New Farm Neighbourhood Centre, 967 Brunswick Street, New Farm
(Meeting Room - proceed to rear along left side of building)
Cost: $5 per person
Guest Speakers/Topics
The guest speaker is Shane Fry from Key Equity Education who will be speaking about Trading Psychology. Key Equity Education is a Brisbane based firm that specializes in coaching and educating traders. Please bring a pen and paper to write on.
We will also be looking at the Blue Chip methodology and how it can be made to work in the current market.
Please forward you enquiries to me at wkraa@bigpond.com
Do not reply to this e-mail as it goes to Alan Hull and not me...
Regards,
William Kraa
THE SYDNEY MEETING WILL BE HELD;
Some details of the Sydney meeting are unavailable and therefore a separate notice will be sent out shortly.
Please forward any enquires to Neil at neil_cowin@bigpond.com
Do not reply to this e-mail as it goes to Alan Hull...
Regards,
Neil Cowin
THE SYDNEY MEETING WILL BE HELD;
Day: Sunday, the 25th of September 2011
Time: 10.00 a.m. - 12.00 p.m.
Location: Harbord Diggers Club, 7 Evans St, Harbord
Charge: Members $15.00 - Non Members $35.00
Guest Speaker- Stephan Grossman presenting on Portfolio No 1. Blue Chip
BLUE CHIP ACCUMULATION
We will discuss when the market is likely to turn from bear to bull and how to position yourself to accumulate a blue chip portfolio. Steve will show you what to look for as a signal the market has turned and which stocks to choose. In addition, Steve will be introducing a series of strategies that may assist your personal financial position.
Blue chip is the biggest and best stocks available. We will be looking for well run companies with good dividends. This is the time to ensure your skills are ready and you are waiting for the starting gun. So please come along.
Lunch is available downstairs so be there and network with other
traders and investors. Feel free to bring some like minded friends along.
Note October 30th Meeting Jonathan Barratt.
Regards,
Neil Cowin
It looks like we're set to make a September/October low....
This commentary is created using extracts and comments from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report at enquiries@alanhull.com
With all the woes of the current global economic circumstances weighing heavily upon them, equity markets around the world continue to falter. There were two possibilities a couple of months ago; we would see a 'V' shaped recovery or, after their initial rebound, markets would fall back and retest their August lows. And sadly it is the latter scenario that is being played out where the Shanghai Composite has led the way south...
So the burning question is how low will the markets go and like everyone else, I have an opinion....
Thus I suspect we haven't got too much further to go but this is just my opinion. So I'm not going to start seeking out growth stocks or trading on the long side until I see the market confirm said opinion. This means a bottoming/reversal action has to occur before I start buying back into the market and in the meantime I will continue to focus on income stocks and short selling.
Hence, all four of our major Banks are currently offering yields greater than 10% per annum when tax credits are taken into consideration and the Breakout Trading and ActVest newsletters have a plethora of trading opportunities on the short side of the market. Of course the first place where long side opportunities will appear when the market does turn around will be my Breakout Trading Newsletter.
And as luck would have it, we've just finished creating our brand new 4 part online tutorial for Breakout Trading which is now available for free with a 6 week trial of my Breakout Trading newsletter. So if you would like to be among the very first to receive the online tutorial and 6 week BT newsletter trial then please send your request to janice@actvest.com And please include your full name and the e-mail address that you would like us to use for the 6 week trial.
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where things have gone from bad to worse. This is a good example of what happens when you don't use trailing stop losses to manage a growth portfolio. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 23rd of September 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 23rd overall and is down 14.80% while the ASX200 index over the same period is down 17.75%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -19.41% with all of the portfolios now being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with it and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
I still think we're due for a rally...
This commentary is created using extracts and comments from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report at enquiries@alanhull.com
The day after I penned last month's commentary declaring that I believed we were in for a rally in the medium term, global markets collectively went into a sharp correction. In fact the All Ordinaries index even managed to break down through 3,900 points at one stage....
Now I'm sure quite a few readers of this commentary will be expecting me to do a 180 degree turn at this point and declare that I'm a bear...but that's not going to happen just yet. So far this correction is of an intermediate nature and therefore my long term view remains unchanged; I strongly suspect we will see another major rally that will take us into the U.S. Presidential election in November 2012...
This is not to say that we should be scrambling to buy growth stocks right now and in fact I have been counselling extreme caution in my weekly Blue Chip Report throughout August. However we did get a great little opportunity to buy a couple of income stocks in August, as I pointed out about two weeks ago. One of our bluest of Blue Chip shares (a top 25 stock) was actually offering up a dividend yield of 10% when franking credits were taken into account.
So August didn't go quite the way I planned it but it did prove to be a buying opportunity in the end. And going forward into September I am poised to start buying growth stocks as markets begin to turn up and start rising again. Of course things may not happen as I'm hoping they will (which is often the case) and we may find ourselves buying some more income stocks. The bottom line is that I'm prepared for either contingency and if you want the specifics on which stocks to buy then you'll need to subscribe to my weekly Blue Chip Report.
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where things also took a bit of a dive this past month. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 26th of August 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 31st overall and is down 10.08% while the ASX200 index over the same period is down 11.49%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -12.40% with all but one of the portfolios being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with it and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
I still think we're due for a rally...
This commentary is created using extracts from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report to enquiries@alanhull.com
The U.S. market has become a slave to all the speculation and political posturing over the debt ceiling, with the August 2nd deadline looming large on the horizon. The net result being that the SP-500 has gone nowhere in the short term. And it’s a similar story for China where they still haven’t made a decisive move, up or down. And given that we're really just a melting pot of these two key markets, we’ve done little more than tread water throughout July. In fact the only really big news is that my new book is now available...
Now back to the markets and here are the daily charts for both the U.S.'s SP-500 index and our very own All Ordinaries index...
But here's the chart that really matters in my opinion as I believe we will inevitably follow China's lead. Right now the Shanghai Composite is still in a consolidation pattern (and looking slightly soft into the bargain) but I remain of the view that it will most likely break out to the upside...
And if we do see an upside breakout in August then the second half of 2011 should be an enjoyable time for Australian investors. So I'm set to start buying shares in the Blue Chip Report and I'm very much looking forward to running my Beginner Course again from later this month. This course will certainly prepare you for any forthcoming rally and you can find out more about it and download an enrolment form at http://alanhull.com/beginnerscourse.html So barring any unforeseen circumstances like a U.S. credit rating downgrade or an event of similar magnitude...I have a positive outlook in the near to medium term.
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where, as with the markets, not a lot has changed. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 29th of July 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 38th overall and is down 5.59% while the ASX200 index over the same period is down 6.76%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -7.17% with 89% of the portfolios being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with it and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings. AND PLEASE NOTE THE MELBOURNE MEETING IS ON THE 21st OF AUGUST
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
All things considered, I think we might be due for a rally
This commentary is created using extracts from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report at enquiries@alanhull.com
If China was going to breakout to the downside then it's had every opportunity to do so in recent weeks. China is currently sitting at the apex of a massive equilateral triangle which means it's poised to breakout at any moment. It did in fact trade lower during the past month but has now recovered all of its recent losses. Now, having failed to breakout to the downside, there is only one other obvious possibility....a breakout to the upside.
So I'm watching this market very closely at the moment, as well as the U.S. where I believe they have a little more upside to go in their current bull run.Thus, if you've been receiving this commentary for a while then you'll be familiar with the following chart of the SP-500.
And if both China and the U.S. decide to run then the second half of 2011 should be an enjoyable time for Australian investors. So I'm set to start buying shares in the Blue Chip Report and I'm very much looking forward to running my Beginner Course again from late August. This course will certainly prepare you for any forthcoming rally and you can find out more about it and download an enrolment form at http://alanhull.com/beginnerscourse.html So barring the unforeseen and contingent on China, I have a bullish outlook going forward.
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where all the portfolios have lost considerable ground this past month. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 24th of June 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 39th overall and the ASX200 index over the same period is down 5.00%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -8.71% with 95% of the portfolios being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with this competition and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
I'm going to start with the big picture this time
This commentary is created using extracts from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report.
Given how boring the short term picture is right now, I'm going to start with the big picture this month and work my way in. As you may (or may not recall if you weren't a subscriber) in the second half of 2007 I recommended in the Blue Chip Report to get out of the market...and stay out. I also ran articles of a defensive nature such as how to hedge your asset class shares, etc. In hindsight I jumped a bit early (the red circle in the chart below) but when the market rebounded I didn’t get back in. I strongly suspected that trying to capture the final rally wasn’t worth the risk….and the market proved this assessment correct.
I soon realised this was a 25 year cycle correction and have worked very hard at developing an understanding of the overall corrective pattern. For starters I knew that this corrective phase certainly wasn't over in March of 2009 and therefore I have maintained the view that the GFC still isn’t over…regardless of what politicians, here and overseas, might say. Anyway I believe the best way to study and understand the current corrective phase is with the aid of a monthly chart of the SP-500....
And viewed from this perspective we should be enjoying an upward rally along with the U.S. market, before it goes into its next major down-cycle. But we're clearly not and I suspect the reason is because the Australian Stockmarket and the Chinese Stockmarket have stalled. Both these markets are presently in a consolidation phase but, given their close proximity to their respective apexes, are due to break out at any moment. For more on the theory behind break outs and breakout trading please see the new video on my website www.alanhull.com
Thus my expectation is that we will (some time fairly shortly) break out in an upward direction in sympathy with the long term rally in the U.S. market. So to summarize; I am trading defensively with a bullish outlook. A bit of an oxymoron but there's really no other way to describe it. Hence, now is a time for preparation and planning with the expectation that things are about to get very interesting. And so this is probably a good place to promote my forthcoming Beginners Course which begins again in August. This course will certainly prepare you and you can find out more about it and download an enrolment form at http://alanhull.com/beginnerscourse.html
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where the overall performance has slipped back considerably this past month. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 27th of May 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 49th overall and the ASX200 index over the same period is down 1.29%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -3.66% with 80% of the portfolios being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with this competition and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. If you also want to know more about any of my other products and services then please visit my website at www.alanhull.com And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
Regards The Team @ Bulls & Bears Network
www.bullsandbearsnetwork.com.au
ph 02 99777501
Local and Overseas Charts
Please email neil_cowin@bigpond.com if you would like to attend.
We normally do not have a meeting in January however if 15 people or more email me I will book the Steyne Hotel for 2hrs 29th January 2012. OK I have Booked!!!
There will be no formal presentation. A couple or traders Rob Kreft and Steve Grossman will go thru some current charts and or the Blue Chip Report.
So please email your interest to neil_cowin@bigpond.com
There is a cafe downstairs for that early morning coffee and a new lunch menue.
For those that have not been to the Steyne Hotel for a while you will be very pleased with the new look and management.
Please forward any enquires to Neil at neil_cowin@bigpond.com
NEW VENUE STEYNE HOTEL MANLY
Corner North Steyne and The Corso
BEACH SIDE ENTRANCE UPSTAIRS OR LIFT.
TWO HRS FREE PARKING IN CENTRAL AVE Manly
NEW VENUE STEYNE HOTEL MANLY
Corner North Steyne and The Corso
BEACH SIDE ENTRANCE UPSTAIRS OR LIFT.
TWO HRS FREE PARKING IN CENTRAL AVE Manly
Optimize, Optimize, Optimize...
There's really only one graphic I need to include in this month's commentary, and that's the Active Investing strategy's crossover charts. These charts tell Investors and Traders when to buy and when not to buy growth stocks and right now they are both crossed upwards which means now is the time to be buying....
My Active Investing strategy has employed this approach for over 10 years and on balance, it has worked extremely well. Hence, as of the 14th of October (nearly 2 weeks ago) I recommended in my Blue Chip Report to start buying shares. Currently, there are nearly 20 shares on the Blue Chip Report's sharelist that subscribers can choose from but, sadly, here's what quite a few investors and traders have been telling me (or something similar) during the past week or so...
'Actually Alan I've got a confession to make; I've ignored my stop losses during the past few months and so I'm already sitting on a pile of shares that I'm waiting to come good. I figure I'd wait until I reverse out all my losses before I even think about doing anymore buying.'
Well here's a confession from me; I've also failed to execute my stop losses at times but if you hang on to these stocks when the market turns back up then you are more than likely, just making a bad situation even worse. This is when you should be optimizing and putting your money on the fastest rising stocks. So optimize, optimize, optimize...
And if this sounds like a sales pitch then that's because it is. Just like the sales pitch I gave over the last couple of months to buy income stocks and I was recommending the four major Banks (among others) in the Blue Chip Report. Here's an example; if you had bought ANZ a little over a month ago, you would have paid about $19.50 for it. Your dividend yield including franking credits would have been just over 10%pa and today the share price is trading at more than $21.00...to boot.
The objection I heard back in August/September was that the market could go even lower. But this isn't a problem when buying income stocks because if the market drops then yields go even higher and you simply buy more (hence dollar cost averaging). And if you have the same concern now then what difference is it going to make as to which shares you own if the market does fall. Of course, as before, you should always sell if you're stop losses are breached.
So now is the time to optimize an existing growth portfolio or start building a new one if you do have cash. And here's the real sales pitch; if you subscribe to my Blue Chip Report before Christmas then we'll waive the normal joining fee of $49.50 and put you in the running to win an Annual Blue Chip Report Subscription which is worth nearly $1,000. You'll find a BCR subscription form on my website at www.alanhull.com or you can send a request to enquiries@alanhull.com
We're also planning on holding an evening seminar in Melbourne titled 'Buying Back In' which will explain how to buy back into the market using the Blue Chip Report. It will include a tutorial, mini-Workshop, the ActVest Trade Recorder and a copy of the latest Blue Chip Report...all for $99. It will be held on an evening in late November to early December and will run from 7.30 to 10.30pm. If you are interested in attending could you please send an expression of interest to enquiries@alanhull.com
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where things are still pretty much underwater. This is a good example of what happens when you don't use trailing stop losses to manage a growth portfolio. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 21st of October 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 36th overall and is down 13.80% while the ASX200 index over the same period is down 12.72%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -15.47% with all of the portfolios still being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with it and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
THE BRISBANE MEETING WILL BE HELD;
Date: Sunday, the 6th of November 2011 PLEASE NOTE NEW VENUE FOR THIS MEETING
Time: 10.00am to 12.00pm
Location: New Farm Neighbourhood Centre, 967 Brunswick Street, New Farm
(Meeting Room - proceed to rear along left side of building)
Cost: $5 per person
Guest Speakers/Topics
The guest speaker is Shane Fry from Key Equity Education who will be speaking about Trading Psychology. Key Equity Education is a Brisbane based firm that specializes in coaching and educating traders. Please bring a pen and paper to write on.
We will also be looking at the Blue Chip methodology and how it can be made to work in the current market.
Please forward you enquiries to me at wkraa@bigpond.com
Please forward you enquiries to me at wkraa@bigpond.com
Do not reply to this e-mail as it goes to Alan Hull and not me...
Regards,
William Kraa
THE SYDNEY MEETING WILL BE HELD;
Some details of the Sydney meeting are unavailable and therefore a separate notice will be sent out shortly.
Please forward any enquires to Neil at neil_cowin@bigpond.com
Do not reply to this e-mail as it goes to Alan Hull...
Regards,
Neil Cowin
THE SYDNEY MEETING WILL BE HELD;
Day: Sunday, the 25th of September 2011
Time: 10.00 a.m. - 12.00 p.m.
Location: Harbord Diggers Club, 7 Evans St, Harbord
Charge: Members $15.00 - Non Members $35.00
Guest Speaker- Stephan Grossman presenting on Portfolio No 1. Blue Chip
BLUE CHIP ACCUMULATION
We will discuss when the market is likely to turn from bear to bull and how to position yourself to accumulate a blue chip portfolio. Steve will show you what to look for as a signal the market has turned and which stocks to choose. In addition, Steve will be introducing a series of strategies that may assist your personal financial position.
Blue chip is the biggest and best stocks available. We will be looking for well run companies with good dividends. This is the time to ensure your skills are ready and you are waiting for the starting gun. So please come along.
Lunch is available downstairs so be there and network with other
traders and investors. Feel free to bring some like minded friends along.
Note October 30th Meeting Jonathan Barratt.
Regards,
Neil Cowin
It looks like we're set to make a September/October low....
This commentary is created using extracts and comments from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report at enquiries@alanhull.com
With all the woes of the current global economic circumstances weighing heavily upon them, equity markets around the world continue to falter. There were two possibilities a couple of months ago; we would see a 'V' shaped recovery or, after their initial rebound, markets would fall back and retest their August lows. And sadly it is the latter scenario that is being played out where the Shanghai Composite has led the way south...
So the burning question is how low will the markets go and like everyone else, I have an opinion....
Thus I suspect we haven't got too much further to go but this is just my opinion. So I'm not going to start seeking out growth stocks or trading on the long side until I see the market confirm said opinion. This means a bottoming/reversal action has to occur before I start buying back into the market and in the meantime I will continue to focus on income stocks and short selling.
Hence, all four of our major Banks are currently offering yields greater than 10% per annum when tax credits are taken into consideration and the Breakout Trading and ActVest newsletters have a plethora of trading opportunities on the short side of the market. Of course the first place where long side opportunities will appear when the market does turn around will be my Breakout Trading Newsletter.
And as luck would have it, we've just finished creating our brand new 4 part online tutorial for Breakout Trading which is now available for free with a 6 week trial of my Breakout Trading newsletter. So if you would like to be among the very first to receive the online tutorial and 6 week BT newsletter trial then please send your request to janice@actvest.com And please include your full name and the e-mail address that you would like us to use for the 6 week trial.
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where things have gone from bad to worse. This is a good example of what happens when you don't use trailing stop losses to manage a growth portfolio. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 23rd of September 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 23rd overall and is down 14.80% while the ASX200 index over the same period is down 17.75%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -19.41% with all of the portfolios now being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with it and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
I still think we're due for a rally...This commentary is created using extracts and comments from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report at enquiries@alanhull.com
The day after I penned last month's commentary declaring that I believed we were in for a rally in the medium term, global markets collectively went into a sharp correction. In fact the All Ordinaries index even managed to break down through 3,900 points at one stage....
Now I'm sure quite a few readers of this commentary will be expecting me to do a 180 degree turn at this point and declare that I'm a bear...but that's not going to happen just yet. So far this correction is of an intermediate nature and therefore my long term view remains unchanged; I strongly suspect we will see another major rally that will take us into the U.S. Presidential election in November 2012...
This is not to say that we should be scrambling to buy growth stocks right now and in fact I have been counselling extreme caution in my weekly Blue Chip Report throughout August. However we did get a great little opportunity to buy a couple of income stocks in August, as I pointed out about two weeks ago. One of our bluest of Blue Chip shares (a top 25 stock) was actually offering up a dividend yield of 10% when franking credits were taken into account.
So August didn't go quite the way I planned it but it did prove to be a buying opportunity in the end. And going forward into September I am poised to start buying growth stocks as markets begin to turn up and start rising again. Of course things may not happen as I'm hoping they will (which is often the case) and we may find ourselves buying some more income stocks. The bottom line is that I'm prepared for either contingency and if you want the specifics on which stocks to buy then you'll need to subscribe to my weekly Blue Chip Report.
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where things also took a bit of a dive this past month. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 26th of August 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 31st overall and is down 10.08% while the ASX200 index over the same period is down 11.49%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -12.40% with all but one of the portfolios being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with it and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
I still think we're due for a rally...
This commentary is created using extracts from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report to enquiries@alanhull.com
The U.S. market has become a slave to all the speculation and political posturing over the debt ceiling, with the August 2nd deadline looming large on the horizon. The net result being that the SP-500 has gone nowhere in the short term. And it’s a similar story for China where they still haven’t made a decisive move, up or down. And given that we're really just a melting pot of these two key markets, we’ve done little more than tread water throughout July. In fact the only really big news is that my new book is now available...
Now back to the markets and here are the daily charts for both the U.S.'s SP-500 index and our very own All Ordinaries index...
But here's the chart that really matters in my opinion as I believe we will inevitably follow China's lead. Right now the Shanghai Composite is still in a consolidation pattern (and looking slightly soft into the bargain) but I remain of the view that it will most likely break out to the upside...
And if we do see an upside breakout in August then the second half of 2011 should be an enjoyable time for Australian investors. So I'm set to start buying shares in the Blue Chip Report and I'm very much looking forward to running my Beginner Course again from later this month. This course will certainly prepare you for any forthcoming rally and you can find out more about it and download an enrolment form at http://alanhull.com/beginnerscourse.html So barring any unforeseen circumstances like a U.S. credit rating downgrade or an event of similar magnitude...I have a positive outlook in the near to medium term.
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where, as with the markets, not a lot has changed. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 29th of July 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 38th overall and is down 5.59% while the ASX200 index over the same period is down 6.76%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -7.17% with 89% of the portfolios being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with it and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings. AND PLEASE NOTE THE MELBOURNE MEETING IS ON THE 21st OF AUGUST
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
All things considered, I think we might be due for a rally
This commentary is created using extracts from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report at enquiries@alanhull.com
If China was going to breakout to the downside then it's had every opportunity to do so in recent weeks. China is currently sitting at the apex of a massive equilateral triangle which means it's poised to breakout at any moment. It did in fact trade lower during the past month but has now recovered all of its recent losses. Now, having failed to breakout to the downside, there is only one other obvious possibility....a breakout to the upside.
So I'm watching this market very closely at the moment, as well as the U.S. where I believe they have a little more upside to go in their current bull run.Thus, if you've been receiving this commentary for a while then you'll be familiar with the following chart of the SP-500.
And if both China and the U.S. decide to run then the second half of 2011 should be an enjoyable time for Australian investors. So I'm set to start buying shares in the Blue Chip Report and I'm very much looking forward to running my Beginner Course again from late August. This course will certainly prepare you for any forthcoming rally and you can find out more about it and download an enrolment form at http://alanhull.com/beginnerscourse.html So barring the unforeseen and contingent on China, I have a bullish outlook going forward.
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where all the portfolios have lost considerable ground this past month. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 24th of June 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 39th overall and the ASX200 index over the same period is down 5.00%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -8.71% with 95% of the portfolios being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with this competition and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
I'm going to start with the big picture this time
This commentary is created using extracts from my weekly Blue Chip Report which you can find out more about at my website www.alanhull.com You can also download a subscription form or send us a request for a recent sample of the Blue Chip Report.
Given how boring the short term picture is right now, I'm going to start with the big picture this month and work my way in. As you may (or may not recall if you weren't a subscriber) in the second half of 2007 I recommended in the Blue Chip Report to get out of the market...and stay out. I also ran articles of a defensive nature such as how to hedge your asset class shares, etc. In hindsight I jumped a bit early (the red circle in the chart below) but when the market rebounded I didn’t get back in. I strongly suspected that trying to capture the final rally wasn’t worth the risk….and the market proved this assessment correct.
I soon realised this was a 25 year cycle correction and have worked very hard at developing an understanding of the overall corrective pattern. For starters I knew that this corrective phase certainly wasn't over in March of 2009 and therefore I have maintained the view that the GFC still isn’t over…regardless of what politicians, here and overseas, might say. Anyway I believe the best way to study and understand the current corrective phase is with the aid of a monthly chart of the SP-500....
And viewed from this perspective we should be enjoying an upward rally along with the U.S. market, before it goes into its next major down-cycle. But we're clearly not and I suspect the reason is because the Australian Stockmarket and the Chinese Stockmarket have stalled. Both these markets are presently in a consolidation phase but, given their close proximity to their respective apexes, are due to break out at any moment. For more on the theory behind break outs and breakout trading please see the new video on my website www.alanhull.com
Thus my expectation is that we will (some time fairly shortly) break out in an upward direction in sympathy with the long term rally in the U.S. market. So to summarize; I am trading defensively with a bullish outlook. A bit of an oxymoron but there's really no other way to describe it. Hence, now is a time for preparation and planning with the expectation that things are about to get very interesting. And so this is probably a good place to promote my forthcoming Beginners Course which begins again in August. This course will certainly prepare you and you can find out more about it and download an enrolment form at http://alanhull.com/beginnerscourse.html
Now to our jellybean portfolio competition where the overall performance has slipped back considerably this past month. Below are the top 5 portfolios plus the Jellybean portfolio (at the bottom) where I've included the returns for the JB portfolio's individual shares as well as its overall performance...
The returns are based on share prices from the close of market at the end of December 2010 to the closing prices last Friday, the 27th of May 2011. The Jellybean portfolio is currently placed 49th overall and the ASX200 index over the same period is down 1.29%. Furthermore the average performance of all the competition's portfolios is -3.66% with 80% of the portfolios being in negative territory (see below).
Anyway I'll keep reporting on the Jellybean portfolio competition each month and if you are not familiar with this competition and would like to know more about it then please send a request to enquiries@actvest.com for a full explanation. If you also want to know more about any of my other products and services then please visit my website at www.alanhull.com And finally, below are the notices for all the forthcoming Sunday Trader's Club meetings.
Kind regards,
Alan Hull
www.bullsandbearsnetwork.com.au
ph 02 99777501
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